Will Kochi United SC win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$184.24

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 99.3¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,801

Combined PnL-$96.68

Yes2 traders

Total Value$303.14

Total Shares913

Combined PnL+$280.92

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.7¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$164.02	49% 4575-4833 (9408)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$44.81	47% 1165-1325 (2490)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 95.2¢	$738.69	$760.38	+$21.69	35% 612-1118 (1730)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$21.18	$298.94	+$277.77	51% 25-24 (49)
LI Limousin	Noavg 92.3¢	$137.21	$147.17	+$9.96	38% 1285-2123 (3408)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$174.11	$128.81	-$45.3	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
└ No leg	Noavg 97.5¢	$91.9	$92.33	+$0.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.6¢	$82.21	$36.49	-$45.72
SU suntori	Noavg 94¢	$95.23	$100.24	+$5.01	46% 3122-3654 (6776)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$47.76	$33.47	-$14.3	38% 1310-2156 (3466)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$8.22	$8.39	+$0.17	34% 448-882 (1330)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.05	$4.2	+$3.15	48% 2477-2700 (5177)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,329.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$164.02

Record

49%

4575-4833 (9408)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,469.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$44.81

Record

47%

1165-1325 (2490)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$738.69

Value

$760.38

PnL

+$21.69

Record

35%

612-1118 (1730)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8CTR

Yes

Invested

$21.18

Value

$298.94

PnL

+$277.77

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

Limousin

Invested

$137.21

Value

$147.17

PnL

+$9.96

Record

38%

1285-2123 (3408)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$174.11

Value

$128.81

PnL

-$45.3

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

Both legs:

No$91.997.5¢+$0.42

Yes$82.214.6¢-$45.72

suntori

Invested

$95.23

Value

$100.24

PnL

+$5.01

Record

46%

3122-3654 (6776)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$47.76

Value

$33.47

PnL

-$14.3

Record

38%

1310-2156 (3466)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$0.17

Record

34%

448-882 (1330)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$3.15

Record

48%

2477-2700 (5177)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.