Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Reilac Shiga FC vs. FC Osaka: O/U 3.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$5.96

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 49.5¢

+47% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$182.43

Total Shares529

Combined PnL+$3.69

Under3 traders

Total Value$93.53

Total Shares221

Combined PnL+$2.27

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 57.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$121.03	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.4¢	$791.44	$593.07	-$198.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$396.21	$473.56	+$77.35
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 64.9¢	$856.81	$681.5	-$175.31	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.9¢	$482.98	$383.28	-$99.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.8¢	$373.83	$298.22	-$75.61
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 34.7¢	$147.49	$146.7	-$0.79	35% 612-1118 (1730)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 41¢	$86.09	$88.19	+$2.1	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$12.64	$12.64	+$0	38% 1289-2127 (3416)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$6.66	$9.18	+$2.52	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$7.98	$7.98	-$0	38% 1314-2159 (3473)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 32.5¢	$3.97	$5.92	+$1.95	37% 1308-2191 (3499)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 63¢	$3.15	$3.13	-$0.02	48% 2479-2702 (5181)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 36¢	$2.02	$2.22	+$0.2	47% 1165-1328 (2493)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,187.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$121.03

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

Both legs:

Under$791.4457.4¢-$198.38

Over$396.2147.7¢+$77.35

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$856.81

Value

$681.5

PnL

-$175.31

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

Both legs:

Under$482.9864.9¢-$99.7

Over$373.8360.8¢-$75.61

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$147.49

Value

$146.7

PnL

-$0.79

Record

35%

612-1118 (1730)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$86.09

Value

$88.19

PnL

+$2.1

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.64

Value

$12.64

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1289-2127 (3416)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.66

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$2.52

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.98

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

1314-2159 (3473)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.97

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$1.95

Record

37%

1308-2191 (3499)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2479-2702 (5181)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

1165-1328 (2493)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.