Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Reilac Shiga FC vs. FC Osaka end in a draw?
Resolved Yes. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Yes 71%
1 arb excluded
$815.62
$348.12
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 38.9¢ | $251.7 | $614.08 | +$362.38 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 58.1¢ | $253.82 | $58.08 | -$195.74 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.1¢ | $230.19 | — | -$230.19 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.7¢ | $23.64 | $58.08 | +$34.44 | |
LO looppau | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $105.94 | $106.05 | +$0.11 | 99% 823-2 (825) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 60¢ | $15.04 | $25.07 | +$10.03 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $7.28 | $7.35 | +$0.07 | 99% 651-9 (660) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $22.05 | — | -$22.05 | 48% 2518-2728 (5246) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $5 | +$2.7 | 38% 1339-2199 (3538) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $5.12 | — | -$5.12 | 34% 460-894 (1354) |
Invested
$251.7
Value
$614.08
PnL
+$362.38
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$253.82
Value
$58.08
PnL
-$195.74
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Both legs:
Invested
$105.94
Value
$106.05
PnL
+$0.11
Record
99%
823-2 (825)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$25.07
PnL
+$10.03
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$7.35
PnL
+$0.07
Record
99%
651-9 (660)
Invested
$22.05
Value
—
PnL
-$22.05
Record
48%
2518-2728 (5246)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.7
Record
38%
1339-2199 (3538)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$5.12
Value
—
PnL
-$5.12
Record
34%
460-894 (1354)