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NoNo
tradecraft<$100NoNoNoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Renofa Yamaguchi win on 2026-11-15?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 83%
Total Value
$357.27
Combined PnL
$91.67
Smart Money Signal
No
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No5 traders
Total Value$357.27
Total Shares357
Combined PnL+$105.94
Yes1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares5
Combined PnL-$14.28
No — 83%Yes — 17%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 43.2¢ | $233.71 | $296.03 | +$62.32 | 49% 4576-4835 (9411) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 20.9¢ | $10.01 | $47.86 | +$37.85 | 52% 2443-2220 (4663) |
tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.58 | $5.37 | +$2.79 | 34% 449-883 (1332) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $5 | +$2.65 | 38% 1289-2127 (3416) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $2.67 | $3 | +$0.33 | 38% 1316-2144 (3460) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $17.71 | — | -$14.28 | 46% 3134-3672 (6806) |
FL
FlaznorpInvested
$233.71
Value
$296.03
PnL
+$62.32
Record
49%
4576-4835 (9411)
GO
GoalLineGhost<$100Invested
$10.01
Value
$47.86
PnL
+$37.85
Record
52%
2443-2220 (4663)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$2.58
Value
$5.37
PnL
+$2.79
Record
34%
449-883 (1332)
LI
Limousin<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.65
Record
38%
1289-2127 (3416)
MA
MadridTime<$100Invested
$2.67
Value
$3
PnL
+$0.33
Record
38%
1316-2144 (3460)
SU
suntoriCTR<$100Invested
$17.71
Value
—
PnL
-$14.28
Record
46%
3134-3672 (6806)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc5483d6b...bf4bb2
Slug
ja3-kam-ren-2026-11-15-ren