Will Giravanz Kitakyushu win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $666 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$666.14
$207.04
46¢ → 51¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 46¢ | $379.64 | $564.63 | +$184.99 | 49% 3640-3753 (7393) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $32.91 | $49.25 | +$16.34 | 29% 307-753 (1060) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $20.56 | $30.84 | +$10.28 | 48% 1953-2074 (4027) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $3.59 | $5.57 | +$1.98 | 54% 2027-1761 (3788) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $7.65 | $4.65 | -$3 | 36% 902-1601 (2503) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.4 | -$0.3 | 36% 915-1634 (2549) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $4.86 | $2.79 | -$2.07 | 56% 434-347 (781) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $2.69 | $2.47 | -$0.22 | 36% 433-785 (1218) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $1.55 | -$0.95 | 37% 946-1592 (2538) |
Invested
$379.64
Value
$564.63
PnL
+$184.99
Record
49%
3640-3753 (7393)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$32.91
Value
$49.25
PnL
+$16.34
Record
29%
307-753 (1060)
Invested
$20.56
Value
$30.84
PnL
+$10.28
Record
48%
1953-2074 (4027)
Invested
$3.59
Value
$5.57
PnL
+$1.98
Record
54%
2027-1761 (3788)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$3
Record
36%
902-1601 (2503)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
36%
915-1634 (2549)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$2.07
Record
56%
434-347 (781)
Invested
$2.69
Value
$2.47
PnL
-$0.22
Record
36%
433-785 (1218)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$0.95
Record
37%
946-1592 (2538)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.