Will Vegalta Sendai win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 62¢ · $646 held · ends Nov 15

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$646.16

Combined PnL

$26.33

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 61.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$392.06

Total Shares652

Combined PnL+$24.14

No4 traders

Total Value$254.09

Total Shares653

Combined PnL+$2.19

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingAddict12345	Yesavg 55¢	$192.96	$210.51	+$17.54	54% 50-43 (93)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 57.4¢	$145.88	$152.4	+$6.52	56% 598-472 (1070)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$94.51	$95.76	+$1.24	41% 469-682 (1151)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$84.39	$85.5	+$1.11	59% 3879-2660 (6539)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 40.1¢	$60.53	$60.37	-$0.17	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$19.48	$19.32	-$0.16	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$12.47	$12.47	+$0	41% 1108-1568 (2676)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$5.99	$6.14	+$0.15	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$3.6	$3.69	+$0.09	33% 415-860 (1275)

GamblingAddict12345

Yes

Invested

$192.96

Value

$210.51

PnL

+$17.54

Record

54%

50-43 (93)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$145.88

Value

$152.4

PnL

+$6.52

Record

56%

598-472 (1070)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$94.51

Value

$95.76

PnL

+$1.24

Record

41%

469-682 (1151)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$84.39

Value

$85.5

PnL

+$1.11

Record

59%

3879-2660 (6539)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$60.53

Value

$60.37

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.48

Value

$19.32

PnL

-$0.16

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$12.47

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.99

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.09

Record

33%

415-860 (1275)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.