Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$209.56

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 71.5¢

-14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,752

Combined PnL-$238.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$305.32

Total Shares2,004

Combined PnL+$29.24

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 85.5¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$265.71	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
SM smithagent	Noavg 74¢	$325.36	$373.72	+$48.36	46% 811-960 (1771)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$248.19	$276.75	+$28.56	53% 2421-2179 (4600)
LI Limousin	Noavg 86.9¢	$115.01	$98.59	-$16.42	38% 1216-2009 (3225)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$91.66	$82.95	-$8.71	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$58.72	$61.68	+$2.96	37% 463-788 (1251)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.2¢	$15.44	$15.14	+$0.7	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$13.45	$13.43	-$0.02	17% 69-349 (418)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 75¢	$8.25	$8.8	+$0.55	45% 900-1082 (1982)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.8	$4	+$0.2	45% 435-526 (961)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.57	-$0.02	38% 1233-2055 (3288)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,761.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$265.71

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

smithagent

Invested

$325.36

Value

$373.72

PnL

+$48.36

Record

46%

811-960 (1771)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$248.19

Value

$276.75

PnL

+$28.56

Record

53%

2421-2179 (4600)

Limousin

Invested

$115.01

Value

$98.59

PnL

-$16.42

Record

38%

1216-2009 (3225)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$91.66

Value

$82.95

PnL

-$8.71

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$58.72

Value

$61.68

PnL

+$2.96

Record

37%

463-788 (1251)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.44

Value

$15.14

PnL

+$0.7

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.45

Value

$13.43

PnL

-$0.02

Record

17%

69-349 (418)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$0.55

Record

45%

900-1082 (1982)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

45%

435-526 (961)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

1233-2055 (3288)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.