Will Iwaki FC win on 2026-11-14?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 67¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$119.17

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 67¢

+27% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$730.03

Total Shares1,597

Combined PnL-$117.81

Yes4 traders

Total Value$87.5

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$1.36

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$468.35	$475.53	+$7.18	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.2¢	$302.55	$349.19	+$46.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40¢	$165.8	$126.34	-$39.46
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52.6¢	$466.97	$324.1	-$142.87	53% 2421-2179 (4600)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 54¢	$224.26	$224.11	-$0.15	54% 1714-1481 (3195)
RN1<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$40.64	$59.99	+$19.35	54% 5793-4838 (10631)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.4¢	$53.48	$49.13	-$4.35	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 63¢	$40.52	$43.1	+$2.57	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 54¢	$28.16	$28.16	-$0	56% 621-486 (1107)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$16.72	$18.92	+$2.2	45% 900-1082 (1982)
dips.<$100	Noavg 42¢	$14.7	$18.9	+$4.2	48% 1176-1281 (2457)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 61¢	$27.45	$18.63	-$1.58	48% 2369-2583 (4952)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$12.87	$14.49	+$1.63	37% 463-788 (1251)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 56¢	$7.76	$7.48	-$0.28	38% 1242-1999 (3241)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.6¢	$5.8	$4.96	-$0.84	46% 3003-3542 (6545)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 42¢	$3.36	$4.32	+$0.96	46% 811-960 (1771)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.27	$1.25	-$0.02	36% 596-1072 (1668)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$468.35

Value

$475.53

PnL

+$7.18

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

Both legs:

No$302.5560.2¢+$46.64

Yes$165.840¢-$39.46

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$466.97

Value

$324.1

PnL

-$142.87

Record

53%

2421-2179 (4600)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$224.26

Value

$224.11

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

1714-1481 (3195)

RN1<$100

Invested

$40.64

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$19.35

Record

54%

5793-4838 (10631)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.48

Value

$49.13

PnL

-$4.35

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$40.52

Value

$43.1

PnL

+$2.57

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.16

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

621-486 (1107)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.72

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$2.2

Record

45%

900-1082 (1982)

dips.<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$4.2

Record

48%

1176-1281 (2457)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$27.45

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$1.58

Record

48%

2369-2583 (4952)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.87

Value

$14.49

PnL

+$1.63

Record

37%

463-788 (1251)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.28

Record

38%

1242-1999 (3241)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.84

Record

46%

3003-3542 (6545)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

$4.32

PnL

+$0.96

Record

46%

811-960 (1771)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.02

Record

36%

596-1072 (1668)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.