Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC vs. Iwaki FC end in a draw?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 36¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 33%
$1.9K
-$758.22
72.7¢ → 36¢
-50% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 72.6¢ | $2.0K | $1.1K | -$916.52 | 49% 4509-4779 (9288) |
LI Limousin | Yesavg 33¢ | $334.23 | $389.52 | +$55.29 | 38% 1261-2087 (3348) |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 23¢ | $76.67 | $198.34 | +$121.67 | 38% 1289-2093 (3382) |
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 21.5¢ | $208.97 | $184.76 | -$24.21 | 37% 1279-2142 (3421) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $44.91 | $56.14 | +$11.23 | 38% 1284-2117 (3401) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $20.85 | $14.4 | -$6.45 | 48% 2431-2662 (5093) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $11.88 | $10.23 | -$1.65 | 33% 441-877 (1318) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 | 46% 3071-3598 (6669) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.79 | $3.21 | +$1.43 | 52% 2433-2206 (4639) |
Invested
$2,001.53
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$916.52
Record
49%
4509-4779 (9288)
Invested
$334.23
Value
$389.52
PnL
+$55.29
Record
38%
1261-2087 (3348)
Invested
$76.67
Value
$198.34
PnL
+$121.67
Record
38%
1289-2093 (3382)
Invested
$208.97
Value
$184.76
PnL
-$24.21
Record
37%
1279-2142 (3421)
Invested
$44.91
Value
$56.14
PnL
+$11.23
Record
38%
1284-2117 (3401)
Invested
$20.85
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$6.45
Record
48%
2431-2662 (5093)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$11.88
Value
$10.23
PnL
-$1.65
Record
33%
441-877 (1318)
Invested
$4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
46%
3071-3598 (6669)
Invested
$1.79
Value
$3.21
PnL
+$1.43
Record
52%
2433-2206 (4639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.