Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 85¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 84.5¢

+64% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares11,540

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,545

Combined PnL-$684.01

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL Bloodygoodrep1	Noavg 49¢	$3.2K	$5.5K	+$2.3K	0% 0-33 (33)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 58.5¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$658.83	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 50.7¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$582.42	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 48¢	$832.68	$1.1K	+$242.86	40% 139-209 (348)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 51¢	$266.71	$152	-$53.29	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$152	$152	-$0	— 9-8 (17)
RN1	Noavg 59¢	$123.31	$129.58	+$6.27	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
tradecraft	Noavg 51.9¢	$97.67	$114.75	+$17.08	29% 307-753 (1060)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 59¢	$59	$62	+$3	53% 760-685 (1445)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 56¢	$28.7	$36.49	+$12.72	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$47.94	$35.72	-$12.22	56% 434-347 (781)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$26.87	$28.54	+$1.67	37% 909-1532 (2441)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.2¢	$53.16	$17.09	-$36.07	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 51¢	$11.74	$14.27	+$2.53	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 50¢	$11	$13.64	+$2.64	44% 749-938 (1687)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$10.1	$12.4	+$2.3	44% 348-451 (799)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.6	$3.15	+$0.55	43% 949-1283 (2232)

Bloodygoodrep1

Invested

$3,162.45

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

0-33 (33)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,737.53

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$658.83

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,333.49

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$582.42

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

Kyn008

Invested

$832.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$242.86

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$266.71

Value

$152

PnL

-$53.29

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR

Yes

Invested

$152

Value

$152

PnL

-$0

Record

—

9-8 (17)

RN1

Invested

$123.31

Value

$129.58

PnL

+$6.27

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

tradecraft

Invested

$97.67

Value

$114.75

PnL

+$17.08

Record

29%

307-753 (1060)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$59

Value

$62

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$28.7

Value

$36.49

PnL

+$12.72

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.94

Value

$35.72

PnL

-$12.22

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$26.87

Value

$28.54

PnL

+$1.67

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.16

Value

$17.09

PnL

-$36.07

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$11.74

Value

$14.27

PnL

+$2.53

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$13.64

PnL

+$2.64

Record

44%

749-938 (1687)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$2.3

Record

44%

348-451 (799)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

$3.15

PnL

+$0.55

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (16 on No) disagree here.

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.