Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Yokohama FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 76¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
3 arb excluded
$5.1K
-$18.17
68.6¢ → 75.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 68.8¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | -$24.14 | 49% 3640-3753 (7393) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $941.36 | $713.6 | -$161.77 | 54% 2027-1761 (3788) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 74¢ | $526.81 | $537.28 | +$10.47 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.1¢ | $324.4 | $176.32 | -$172.24 | |
SU suntoriARB<$100 | Overavg 17.3¢ | $394.15 | $538.21 | +$144.06 | 45% 2420-2899 (5319) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 17.3¢ | $206.42 | $316.73 | +$110.31 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 62.3¢ | $187.73 | $221.48 | +$33.75 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 55¢ | $167.56 | $170.56 | +$3 | 53% 1232-1075 (2307) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $130.55 | $113.31 | -$17.24 | 56% 5169-4141 (9310) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 84¢ | $87.28 | $87.8 | +$0.52 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 26.3¢ | $43.28 | $25.51 | -$17.76 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $77.76 | $79.37 | +$1.62 | 37% 909-1532 (2441) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $36.11 | $37.71 | +$1.6 | 43% 949-1283 (2232) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 52.5¢ | $5.25 | $5 | -$0.25 | 48% 1953-2074 (4027) |
Invested
$3,500.75
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$24.14
Record
49%
3640-3753 (7393)
Invested
$941.36
Value
$713.6
PnL
-$161.77
Record
54%
2027-1761 (3788)
Both legs:
Invested
$394.15
Value
$538.21
PnL
+$144.06
Record
45%
2420-2899 (5319)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$167.56
Value
$170.56
PnL
+$3
Record
53%
1232-1075 (2307)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$130.55
Value
$113.31
PnL
-$17.24
Record
56%
5169-4141 (9310)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.76
Value
$79.37
PnL
+$1.62
Record
37%
909-1532 (2441)
Invested
$36.11
Value
$37.71
PnL
+$1.6
Record
43%
949-1283 (2232)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
1953-2074 (4027)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.