Will Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Yokohama FC end in a draw?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$907.14

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 98¢

+29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares7,487

Combined PnL+$942.73

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.53

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$35.59

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.3¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$723.33	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.6¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$200.98	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 78¢	$156.93	$162.7	+$5.78	37% 909-1532 (2441)
RN1<$100	Noavg 82¢	$82	$93	+$11	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.55	+$0.25	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 74¢	$5.33	$5.54	+$0.2	29% 307-753 (1060)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 74¢	$19.17	$3.57	+$1.2	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$38.09	$2.65	-$35.44	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$1.99	$1.81	-$0.18	21% 55-205 (260)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.04	$0.06	+$0.02	53% 6922-6099 (13021)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,652.8

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$723.33

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,817.36

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$200.98

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$156.93

Value

$162.7

PnL

+$5.78

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

RN1<$100

Invested

$82

Value

$93

PnL

+$11

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0.2

Record

29%

307-753 (1060)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$19.17

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$1.2

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.09

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$35.44

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$0.18

Record

21%

55-205 (260)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.