Will Sagan Tosu win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 54¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 7

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

-$27

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares21,893

Combined PnL+$2

No6 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares20,761

Combined PnL-$29.01

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 47.5¢	$10.1K	$10.0K	-$7.42	48% 202-218 (420)
LI Limousin	Noavg 54.3¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$53.89	51% 1749-1699 (3448)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 54.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$40.62	49% 1684-1757 (3441)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 52.3¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$56.53	51% 26669-25270 (51939)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 53.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0.03	50% 28752-28575 (57327)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 53¢	$964.96	$974.06	+$9.1	49% 14922-15785 (30707)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 45.2¢	$320.86	$329.85	+$8.99	50% 21456-21716 (43172)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Noavg 53¢	$86.61	$87.47	+$0.86	50% 26223-25873 (52096)
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$59.61	$60.17	+$0.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$27	$27.3	+$0.29
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$32.7	$21.4	-$0.1	58% 47221-34058 (81279)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$14.1	$14.25	+$0.15	50% 8376-8430 (16806)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.2¢	$4.52	$4.8	+$0.28	53% 2654-2333 (4987)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,050.62

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$7.42

Record

48%

202-218 (420)

Limousin

Invested

$3,728.34

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$53.89

Record

51%

1749-1699 (3448)

LightParadox

Invested

$2,932.67

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$40.62

Record

49%

1684-1757 (3441)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,455.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$56.53

Record

51%

26669-25270 (51939)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,156.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

28752-28575 (57327)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$964.96

Value

$974.06

PnL

+$9.1

Record

49%

14922-15785 (30707)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$320.86

Value

$329.85

PnL

+$8.99

Record

50%

21456-21716 (43172)

sentrioARB<$100

Invested

$86.61

Value

$87.47

PnL

+$0.86

Record

50%

26223-25873 (52096)

Both legs:

No$59.6153¢+$0.56

Yes$2746¢+$0.29

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$21.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

47221-34058 (81279)

RLWGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.1

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

8376-8430 (16806)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.52

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

2654-2333 (4987)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.