Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-11-07?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$70.76

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 62.5¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,126

Combined PnL-$70.76

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 61¢	$383.34	$395.04	+$11.69	49% 14954-15836 (30790)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 70.1¢	$347.71	$309.6	-$38.11	51% 26809-25398 (52207)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69.6¢	$286.52	$249.69	-$36.83	50% 28826-28639 (57465)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 74¢	$157.22	$158.28	+$1.06	49% 296-309 (605)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$153.07	$136.8	-$16.27	48% 1701-1821 (3522)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$67.7	$69.99	+$2.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$85.38	$66.81	-$18.56
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 71.5¢	$136.65	$131.85	-$4.81	53% 2663-2346 (5009)
RN1	Noavg 61¢	$118.12	$115.19	-$2.94	53% 61999-54294 (116293)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$77.35	$72.31	-$5.04	49% 1764-1829 (3593)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$45.8	$45.51	-$0.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$31.55	$26.79	-$4.76
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 69¢	$23.3	$24.76	-$0.43	50% 26276-25912 (52188)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$11.81	$11.51	-$0.31	49% 1726-1810 (3536)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$3.53	$3.43	-$0.1	50% 1780-1756 (3536)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$383.34

Value

$395.04

PnL

+$11.69

Record

49%

14954-15836 (30790)

Flaznorp

Invested

$347.71

Value

$309.6

PnL

-$38.11

Record

51%

26809-25398 (52207)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$286.52

Value

$249.69

PnL

-$36.83

Record

50%

28826-28639 (57465)

Kyn008

Invested

$157.22

Value

$158.28

PnL

+$1.06

Record

49%

296-309 (605)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$153.07

Value

$136.8

PnL

-$16.27

Record

48%

1701-1821 (3522)

Both legs:

No$67.774¢+$2.29

Yes$85.3830¢-$18.56

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$136.65

Value

$131.85

PnL

-$4.81

Record

53%

2663-2346 (5009)

RN1

Invested

$118.12

Value

$115.19

PnL

-$2.94

Record

53%

61999-54294 (116293)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$77.35

Value

$72.31

PnL

-$5.04

Record

49%

1764-1829 (3593)

Both legs:

No$45.875¢-$0.28

Yes$31.5530¢-$4.76

sentrio<$100

Invested

$23.3

Value

$24.76

PnL

-$0.43

Record

50%

26276-25912 (52188)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$11.81

Value

$11.51

PnL

-$0.31

Record

49%

1726-1810 (3536)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$3.53

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

1780-1756 (3536)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.