Spread: RB Ōmiya Ardija (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Montedio Yamagata (63%) · Montedio Yamagata at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

RB Ōmiya Ardija24¢Montedio Yamagata76¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Montedio Yamagata

Consensus Traders

Montedio Yamagata 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$24.09

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 76¢

+39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMontedio Yamagata at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Montedio Yamagata

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

RB Ōmiya Ardija24%

Montedio Yamagata76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Montedio Yamagata5 traders

Total Value$287.25

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$1.18

RB Ōmiya Ardija3 traders

Total Value$59.4

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$22.91

Montedio Yamagata — 63%RB Ōmiya Ardija — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 73.2¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$320.84	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ Montedio Yamagata leg	Montedio Yamagataavg 23.7¢	$478.99	$1.1K	+$644.02
└ RB Ōmiya Ardija leg	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 73.2¢	$824.74	$501.56	-$323.18
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 77.7¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$14.39	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
└ Montedio Yamagata leg	Montedio Yamagataavg 34.1¢	$483.83	$973.21	+$489.38
└ RB Ōmiya Ardija leg	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 77.7¢	$850.77	$344.74	-$503.77
VeryLucky888	Montedio Yamagataavg 59¢	$171.76	$168.85	-$2.91	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
RN1<$100	Montedio Yamagataavg 48¢	$92.31	$93.27	+$0.96	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 41¢	$19.04	$31.81	+$12.77	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 33¢	$16.63	$26.21	+$9.58	56% 434-347 (781)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Montedio Yamagataavg 18¢	$2.77	$10.29	+$7.51	37% 909-1532 (2441)
SE sentrio<$100	Montedio Yamagataavg 66.7¢	$11.13	$9.85	-$1.29	43% 949-1283 (2232)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Montedio Yamagataavg 85¢	$8.1	$5	-$3.1	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
poshposhCTR<$100	RB Ōmiya Ardijaavg 8¢	$0.82	$1.38	+$0.56	48% 1031-1119 (2150)

FlaznorpARB<$100

RB Ōmiya Ardija

Invested

$1,303.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$320.84

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

Montedio Yamagata$478.9923.7¢+$644.02

RB Ōmiya Ardija$824.7473.2¢-$323.18

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

RB Ōmiya Ardija

Invested

$2,002.76

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$14.39

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

Both legs:

Montedio Yamagata$483.8334.1¢+$489.38

RB Ōmiya Ardija$850.7777.7¢-$503.77

VeryLucky888

Montedio Yamagata

Invested

$171.76

Value

$168.85

PnL

-$2.91

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

RN1<$100

Montedio Yamagata

Invested

$92.31

Value

$93.27

PnL

+$0.96

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

suntoriCTR<$100

RB Ōmiya Ardija

Invested

$19.04

Value

$31.81

PnL

+$12.77

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

RB Ōmiya Ardija

Invested

$16.63

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$9.58

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

topdogbigboi<$100

Montedio Yamagata

Invested

$2.77

Value

$10.29

PnL

+$7.51

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

sentrio<$100

Montedio Yamagata

Invested

$11.13

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$1.29

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

ferdinand2<$100

Montedio Yamagata

Invested

$8.1

Value

PnL

-$3.1

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

poshposhCTR<$100

RB Ōmiya Ardija

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.56

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

Research grade

NeutralMontedio Yamagata at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Montedio Yamagata

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Montedio Yamagata wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.