Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 23¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Yes78¢No22¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

30.8¢ → 22.5¢

-27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,946

Combined PnL+$589.22

No6 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares22,097

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 62.8¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$476.93	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 28.9¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$640	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR	Noavg 37¢	$3.3K	$1.7K	$-1.6K	0% 0-33 (33)
TH thatsabing0	Yesavg 82¢	$898.37	$892.89	-$5.48	62% 194-117 (311)
RN1CTR	Noavg 17.5¢	$491.11	$632.52	+$141.4	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 62.4¢	$372.5	$304.61	+$59.78	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
SU suntori	Yesavg 63¢	$127.76	$156.94	+$29.18	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 59.3¢	$96.35	$98.44	+$17.87	29% 307-753 (1060)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$47.88	$58.83	+$10.95	56% 434-347 (781)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$45.42	$26.89	-$18.53	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$12.23	$7.67	-$4.55	36% 329-580 (909)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 41.2¢	$15.56	$6.8	-$8.76	43% 949-1283 (2232)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,421.98

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$476.93

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$3,066.86

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$640

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR

Invested

$3,303.33

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

0-33 (33)

thatsabing0

Yes

Invested

$898.37

Value

$892.89

PnL

-$5.48

Record

62%

194-117 (311)

RN1CTR

Invested

$491.11

Value

$632.52

PnL

+$141.4

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$372.5

Value

$304.61

PnL

+$59.78

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$127.76

Value

$156.94

PnL

+$29.18

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$96.35

Value

$98.44

PnL

+$17.87

Record

29%

307-753 (1060)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.88

Value

$58.83

PnL

+$10.95

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$45.42

Value

$26.89

PnL

-$18.53

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$12.23

Value

$7.67

PnL

-$4.55

Record

36%

329-580 (909)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$15.56

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$8.76

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.