Will Montedio Yamagata win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 95¢ · $920 held · ended Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$920.21

Combined PnL

-$261.64

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 95¢

+9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$788.46

Total Shares756

Combined PnL-$100.2

Yes6 traders

Total Value$58.97

Total Shares1,179

Combined PnL-$161.44

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.2¢	$656	$518.79	-$137.21	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 79¢	$99.57	$117.22	+$17.65	37% 946-1592 (2538)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$140.9	$72.77	-$68.13	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$34.2	$39.15	+$4.94
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.9¢	$106.7	$33.62	-$73.07
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 81¢	$44.83	$52.66	+$7.83	37% 909-1532 (2441)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 80¢	$32.57	$38.67	+$6.11	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 93¢	$25.11	$25.65	+$0.54	74% 210-75 (285)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$63.09	$19.72	-$43.38	36% 329-580 (909)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$61.27	$19.15	-$42.12	59% 3738-2564 (6302)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.9	$18.72	+$2.82	36% 930-1626 (2556)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$41.52	$9.69	-$20.18	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8.57	$9.57	+$0.99	29% 307-753 (1060)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$72.6	$8.16	-$51.75	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 79¢	$6.11	$7.19	+$1.08	36% 915-1634 (2549)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$5.28	$1.26	-$4.02	43% 949-1283 (2232)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1	$1	+$0	48% 1953-2074 (4027)

Flaznorp

Invested

$656

Value

$518.79

PnL

-$137.21

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

MadridTime

Invested

$99.57

Value

$117.22

PnL

+$17.65

Record

37%

946-1592 (2538)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$140.9

Value

$72.77

PnL

-$68.13

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

Both legs:

No$34.283¢+$4.94

Yes$106.715.9¢-$73.07

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$44.83

Value

$52.66

PnL

+$7.83

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$32.57

Value

$38.67

PnL

+$6.11

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$25.11

Value

$25.65

PnL

+$0.54

Record

74%

210-75 (285)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.09

Value

$19.72

PnL

-$43.38

Record

36%

329-580 (909)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.27

Value

$19.15

PnL

-$42.12

Record

59%

3738-2564 (6302)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$15.9

Value

$18.72

PnL

+$2.82

Record

36%

930-1626 (2556)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.52

Value

$9.69

PnL

-$20.18

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$8.57

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.99

Record

29%

307-753 (1060)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.6

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$51.75

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$6.11

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$1.08

Record

36%

915-1634 (2549)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.28

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$4.02

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.