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NoYes
VeryLucky888YesNoNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Montedio Yamagata: Both Teams to Score
Resolved Yes. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$323.61
Combined PnL
-$87.63
Smart Money Signal
No
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares342
Combined PnL-$155.32
Yes1 trader
Total Value$167.48
Total Shares167
Combined PnL+$67.69
No — 75%Yes — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $114.95 | — | -$114.95 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
SU suntoriARB<$100 | Yesavg 51.6¢ | $109.12 | $156.13 | +$47.01 | 46% 2530-3008 (5538) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51.6¢ | $80.55 | $156.13 | +$75.58 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $28.57 | — | -$28.57 | |
VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $99.79 | $167.48 | +$67.69 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $39.12 | — | -$39.12 | 36% 942-1663 (2605) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 36% 437-793 (1230) |
FL
FlaznorpCTRInvested
$114.95
Value
—
PnL
-$114.95
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
SU
suntoriARB<$100Invested
$109.12
Value
$156.13
PnL
+$47.01
Record
46%
2530-3008 (5538)
Both legs:
Yes$80.5551.6¢+$75.58
No$28.5741¢-$28.57
VeryLucky888Invested
$99.79
Value
$167.48
PnL
+$67.69
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)
VE
VenusianCTR<$100Invested
$39.12
Value
—
PnL
-$39.12
Record
36%
942-1663 (2605)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
36%
437-793 (1230)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x027790f1...7fc432
Slug
ja2-omi-mon-2026-11-14-btts