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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Ōita Trinita vs. Tochigi City FC: O/U 2.5

Resolved Over. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$197.81

Combined PnL

-$270.48

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%
Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders
Total Value$163.28
Total Shares163
Combined PnL+$62.96
Under2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares719
Combined PnL-$333.44
Over — 60%Under — 40%
TO
topdogbigboi
Over

Invested

$72.42

Value

$121.69

PnL

+$49.27

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

FL
FlaznorpARB<$100
Under

Invested

$309.84

Value

$34.53

PnL

-$275.31

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

Both legs:

Under$291.4141.7¢-$291.41
Over$18.4253.4¢+$16.11
GO
GoalLineGhostCTR
Under

Invested

$329.51

Value

—

PnL

-$329.51

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

poshposh<$100
Over

Invested

$25.78

Value

$41.58

PnL

+$15.8

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

SE
sentrioCTR<$100
Under

Invested

$3.93

Value

—

PnL

-$3.93

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

SU
suntori<$100
Over

Invested

$29.6

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.11

Record

46%

2530-3008 (5538)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x08b66890...81f3b2
Slug
ja2-oit-tct-2026-11-14-total-2pt5

Traders in this Market

TO

topdogbigboi

Over — $121.69

+$49.27
FL

Flaznorp

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$275.31
GO

GoalLineGhost

CTR

Under — $0

-$329.51

poshposh

Over — $41.58

+$15.8
SE

sentrio

CTR

Under — $0

-$3.93
SU

suntori

Over — $0.01

-$2.11
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