Kataller Toyama vs. Tokushima Vortis: O/U 3.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$3.92

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 58.5¢

+73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$369.48

Total Shares1,094

Combined PnL-$0.11

Under5 traders

Total Value$138.66

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$4.04

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 33.2¢	$343.47	$426.1	+$82.63	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
└ Over leg	Overavg 33.2¢	$241.61	$337.91	+$96.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.8¢	$101.86	$88.19	-$13.67
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 33¢	$281.67	$285.94	+$4.27	36% 609-1105 (1714)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 64.4¢	$303.38	$242.12	-$61.26	52% 2433-2206 (4639)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.4¢	$218.19	$125.45	-$92.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$85.19	$116.67	+$31.48
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 65¢	$65	$67.5	+$2.5	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$47.52	$48.6	+$1.08	56% 630-495 (1125)
dips.<$100	Overavg 39¢	$37.83	$35.41	-$2.42	48% 1236-1313 (2549)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 34¢	$37.05	$32.69	-$4.36	37% 1279-2142 (3421)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 38¢	$13.04	$15.44	+$2.4	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$14.95	$15.44	+$0.48	39% 1485-2329 (3814)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 67¢	$5.1	$5.05	-$0.05	48% 2431-2662 (5093)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.07	+$0.02	38% 1284-2117 (3401)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$343.47

Value

$426.1

PnL

+$82.63

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

Both legs:

Over$241.6133.2¢+$96.3

Under$101.8661.8¢-$13.67

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$281.67

Value

$285.94

PnL

+$4.27

Record

36%

609-1105 (1714)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$303.38

Value

$242.12

PnL

-$61.26

Record

52%

2433-2206 (4639)

Both legs:

Under$218.1964.4¢-$92.74

Over$85.1946¢+$31.48

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$65

Value

$67.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.52

Value

$48.6

PnL

+$1.08

Record

56%

630-495 (1125)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$37.83

Value

$35.41

PnL

-$2.42

Record

48%

1236-1313 (2549)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$37.05

Value

$32.69

PnL

-$4.36

Record

37%

1279-2142 (3421)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$13.04

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$2.4

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.95

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$0.48

Record

39%

1485-2329 (3814)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

38%

1284-2117 (3401)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.