Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Imabari vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 3.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 8.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 8¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,989

Combined PnL+$74.39

Over3 traders

Total Value$566.95

Total Shares3,070

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 69.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$47.48	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
LI Limousin	Underavg 43.3¢	$248.65	$373.19	+$124.54	38% 1272-2102 (3374)
RN1CTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$1.3K	$333.35	-$941.33	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$551.07	$168.34	-$382.73	52% 2433-2208 (4641)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 92¢	$91.61	$96.59	+$4.98	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$65.26	$65.26	+$0	41% 1155-1643 (2798)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 65¢	$24.22	$16.77	-$7.45	53% 1793-1578 (3371)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 50¢	$14.27	$12.84	-$1.43	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 40¢	$9.84	$11.07	+$1.23	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
KY Kyn008<$100	Underavg 45¢	$4.09	$4.09	-$0	41% 155-221 (376)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,247.98

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$47.48

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$248.65

Value

$373.19

PnL

+$124.54

Record

38%

1272-2102 (3374)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,274.68

Value

$333.35

PnL

-$941.33

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$551.07

Value

$168.34

PnL

-$382.73

Record

52%

2433-2208 (4641)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$91.61

Value

$96.59

PnL

+$4.98

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$65.26

Value

$65.26

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1155-1643 (2798)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$24.22

Value

$16.77

PnL

-$7.45

Record

53%

1793-1578 (3371)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$14.27

Value

$12.84

PnL

-$1.43

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$9.84

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$1.23

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

Kyn008<$100

Under

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

155-221 (376)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.