Will Júbilo Iwata win on 2026-11-15?

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 100¢ · $98K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$97.7K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 99.5¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$92.2K

Total Shares92,575

Combined PnL+$6.5K

No9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares62,512

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZO Zombie77	Yesavg 92.1¢	$74.7K	$80.8K	+$6.0K	— 15-3 (18)
RN1	Yesavg 89.3¢	$5.7K	$6.0K	+$343.3	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 13.3¢	$6.5K	$3.1K	$-3.4K	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.3¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$186.18
└ No leg	Noavg 13.3¢	$4.3K	$709	$-3.6K
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 89.7¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$18.45	52% 2433-2208 (4641)
SL SlickRick123	Yesavg 88¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$40.25	37% 473-802 (1275)
Secondhandvinyl	Yesavg 97.8¢	$927.7	$943.84	+$16.14	77% 370-108 (478)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 8¢	$1.1K	$636.76	-$495.26	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 8¢	$1.4K	$627.67	-$807	37% 1288-2159 (3447)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 8¢	$322.4	$403	+$80.6	40% 151-226 (377)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 90.9¢	$292.85	$290.28	-$2.57	41% 1155-1643 (2798)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 90.9¢	$221.16	$218.95	-$2.2
└ No leg	Noavg 10.1¢	$71.69	$71.32	-$0.37
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 9.1¢	$222.61	$158.93	-$63.68	38% 1296-2132 (3428)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 7.2¢	$1.6K	$141.44	$-1.4K	47% 1159-1312 (2471)
NO NotJump	Yesavg 91¢	$702.78	$102.61	+$11.42	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 56.9¢	$68.09	$99	+$49.98	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$77.44	$79.2	+$1.76	45% 935-1121 (2056)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 7.3¢	$60.57	$28.95	-$31.62	39% 1498-2355 (3853)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$60.4	$11.4	-$49	36% 611-1105 (1716)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 88.5¢	$9.2	$9.5	+$0.3	45% 440-539 (979)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 9.5¢	$55.93	$2.96	-$52.98	48% 2449-2682 (5131)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$4.96	$1.48	-$3.48	33% 441-879 (1320)

Zombie77

Yes

Invested

$74,728.7

Value

$80.8K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

—

15-3 (18)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$5,657.04

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$343.3

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$6,544.7

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

Both legs:

Yes$2,250.0990.3¢+$186.18

No$4,294.6213.3¢$-3.6K

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,443.32

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$18.45

Record

52%

2433-2208 (4641)

SlickRick123

Yes

Invested

$1,770.94

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$40.25

Record

37%

473-802 (1275)

Secondhandvinyl

Yes

Invested

$927.7

Value

$943.84

PnL

+$16.14

Record

77%

370-108 (478)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$1,132.02

Value

$636.76

PnL

-$495.26

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$1,434.67

Value

$627.67

PnL

-$807

Record

37%

1288-2159 (3447)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$322.4

Value

$403

PnL

+$80.6

Record

40%

151-226 (377)

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$292.85

Value

$290.28

PnL

-$2.57

Record

41%

1155-1643 (2798)

Both legs:

Yes$221.1690.9¢-$2.2

No$71.6910.1¢-$0.37

VenusianCTR

Invested

$222.61

Value

$158.93

PnL

-$63.68

Record

38%

1296-2132 (3428)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,568.82

Value

$141.44

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

47%

1159-1312 (2471)

NotJump

Yes

Invested

$702.78

Value

$102.61

PnL

+$11.42

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.09

Value

$99

PnL

+$49.98

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.44

Value

$79.2

PnL

+$1.76

Record

45%

935-1121 (2056)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$60.57

Value

$28.95

PnL

-$31.62

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$60.4

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$49

Record

36%

611-1105 (1716)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

45%

440-539 (979)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$55.93

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$52.98

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$3.48

Record

33%

441-879 (1320)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 18 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.