Will Ventforet Kōfu win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$36.3
75.7¢ → 98.2¢
+30% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 74.7¢ | $2.4K | $3.0K | +$637.73 | 49% 3640-3753 (7393) |
 RN1 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $169.05 | $169.75 | +$0.7 | 56% 5169-4141 (9310) |
 poshposh | Noavg 72¢ | $108 | $115.5 | +$7.5 | 48% 1031-1119 (2150) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $59.68 | $72.59 | +$12.91 | 54% 2027-1761 (3788) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $36.66 | $47.27 | +$10.61 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3¢ | $23.02 | $25.32 | +$2.3 | |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $730.27 | $47.07 | -$683.2 | 12% 43-330 (373) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $11.95 | $12.7 | +$0.75 | 48% 1953-2074 (4027) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $5.94 | $5.46 | -$0.48 | 45% 2420-2899 (5319) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $4.38 | $4.62 | +$0.24 | 37% 909-1532 (2441) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $4.44 | $4.62 | +$0.18 | 29% 307-753 (1060) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $2.97 | $3.25 | +$0.28 | 53% 1232-1075 (2307) |
Invested
$2,358.68
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$637.73
Record
49%
3640-3753 (7393)
RN1Invested
$169.05
Value
$169.75
PnL
+$0.7
Record
56%
5169-4141 (9310)
poshposhInvested
$108
Value
$115.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
48%
1031-1119 (2150)
Invested
$59.68
Value
$72.59
PnL
+$12.91
Record
54%
2027-1761 (3788)
Both legs:
Invested
$730.27
Value
$47.07
PnL
-$683.2
Record
12%
43-330 (373)
Invested
$11.95
Value
$12.7
PnL
+$0.75
Record
48%
1953-2074 (4027)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$5.46
PnL
-$0.48
Record
45%
2420-2899 (5319)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0.24
Record
37%
909-1532 (2441)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$4.44
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0.18
Record
29%
307-753 (1060)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.97
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.28
Record
53%
1232-1075 (2307)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.