Will Fujieda MYFC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 86¢ · $983 held · ended Nov 14

Yes86¢No14¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$982.79

Combined PnL

$205.62

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 85.5¢

+94% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$479.79

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$187.66

No5 traders

Total Value$156.33

Total Shares259

Combined PnL+$17.96

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 37.4¢	$168.31	$362.77	+$194.47	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 42.2¢	$546.58	$346.66	-$199.92	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47¢	$104.99	$189.8	+$84.8
└ No leg	Noavg 42.2¢	$441.59	$156.86	-$284.73
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$80.95	$97.13	+$16.19	0% 0-33 (33)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 67.5¢	$36.89	$45.09	+$8.21	12% 43-330 (373)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$48	$39.36	-$8.64	56% 434-347 (781)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$36	$33.95	-$2.05	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$38.93	$32.56	-$6.37	37% 909-1532 (2441)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$23.8	$17.11	+$4.42	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$5.95	$6.25	+$0.3	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$2.79	$1.89	-$0.9	34% 351-680 (1031)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$168.31

Value

$362.77

PnL

+$194.47

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$546.58

Value

$346.66

PnL

-$199.92

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

Yes$104.9947¢+$84.8

No$441.5942.2¢-$284.73

Bloodygoodrep1CTR<$100

Invested

$80.95

Value

$97.13

PnL

+$16.19

Record

0-33 (33)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.89

Value

$45.09

PnL

+$8.21

Record

12%

43-330 (373)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$48

Value

$39.36

PnL

-$8.64

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$33.95

PnL

-$2.05

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.93

Value

$32.56

PnL

-$6.37

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$23.8

Value

$17.11

PnL

+$4.42

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$2.79

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.9

Record

34%

351-680 (1031)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.