Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Sagan Tosu end in a draw?
5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 50%
$4.9K
$35.37
72.2¢ → 70.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 71.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$36.9 | 48% 4388-4660 (9048) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$17.41 | 53% 2421-2179 (4600) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $765.09 | $805.9 | +$40.81 | 38% 1233-2055 (3288) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $404.66 | $414.76 | +$10.1 | 38% 1242-1999 (3241) |
 RN1 | Noavg 73¢ | $118.77 | $120.4 | +$1.63 | 54% 5793-4838 (10631) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $48.69 | $49.64 | +$0.95 | 33% 430-871 (1301) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $19.04 | $20.43 | +$1.39 | 46% 3003-3542 (6545) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.65 | $3.7 | +$0.05 | 41% 1132-1606 (2738) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $2.67 | $2.67 | +$0 | 59% 3902-2685 (6587) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $1.77 | $1.7 | -$0.07 | 38% 1229-2023 (3252) |
Invested
$2,223.12
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$36.9
Record
48%
4388-4660 (9048)
Invested
$1,245.99
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$17.41
Record
53%
2421-2179 (4600)
Invested
$765.09
Value
$805.9
PnL
+$40.81
Record
38%
1233-2055 (3288)
Invested
$404.66
Value
$414.76
PnL
+$10.1
Record
38%
1242-1999 (3241)
RN1Invested
$118.77
Value
$120.4
PnL
+$1.63
Record
54%
5793-4838 (10631)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$48.69
Value
$49.64
PnL
+$0.95
Record
33%
430-871 (1301)
Invested
$19.04
Value
$20.43
PnL
+$1.39
Record
46%
3003-3542 (6545)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$3.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
41%
1132-1606 (2738)
Invested
$2.67
Value
$2.67
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3902-2685 (6587)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.7
PnL
-$0.07
Record
38%
1229-2023 (3252)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.