Will Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo win on 2026-11-14?
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 51¢ · $742 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 58%
$741.82
$84.61
72.9¢ → 50.5¢
-31% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 73¢ | $243.09 | $246.42 | +$3.33 | 54% 1714-1481 (3195) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $163.76 | $242.18 | +$78.42 | 48% 4388-4660 (9048) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $93.18 | $93.18 | -$0 | 47% 1103-1245 (2348) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $81.31 | $82.77 | +$1.46 | 59% 3902-2685 (6587) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $20.08 | $19.81 | -$0.27 | 38% 1229-2023 (3252) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $20.08 | $18.59 | -$1.49 | 46% 3003-3542 (6545) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $13.32 | $13.32 | -$0 | 38% 1216-2009 (3225) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $6.89 | $8.47 | +$1.58 | 48% 2369-2583 (4952) |
HY hydra1248CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $7.25 | $6.62 | -$0.63 | 76% 212-68 (280) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $3.24 | $5.4 | +$2.16 | 38% 1390-2228 (3618) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.75 | +$0 | 38% 1242-1999 (3241) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.26 | $1.32 | +$0.05 | 53% 2421-2179 (4600) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$243.09
Value
$246.42
PnL
+$3.33
Record
54%
1714-1481 (3195)
Invested
$163.76
Value
$242.18
PnL
+$78.42
Record
48%
4388-4660 (9048)
Invested
$93.18
Value
$93.18
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
1103-1245 (2348)
Invested
$81.31
Value
$82.77
PnL
+$1.46
Record
59%
3902-2685 (6587)
Invested
$20.08
Value
$19.81
PnL
-$0.27
Record
38%
1229-2023 (3252)
Invested
$20.08
Value
$18.59
PnL
-$1.49
Record
46%
3003-3542 (6545)
Invested
$13.32
Value
$13.32
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
1216-2009 (3225)
Invested
$6.89
Value
$8.47
PnL
+$1.58
Record
48%
2369-2583 (4952)
Invested
$7.25
Value
$6.62
PnL
-$0.63
Record
76%
212-68 (280)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$2.16
Record
38%
1390-2228 (3618)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1242-1999 (3241)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
2421-2179 (4600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.