Ōita Trinita leading at halftime?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
2 arb excluded
$3.4K
-$431.29
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinARB<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$118.72 | 50% 1780-1756 (3536) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.9¢ | $1.4K | $934.21 | -$460.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.7¢ | $354.12 | $696.37 | +$342.25 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 76.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$512.72 | 50% 28826-28639 (57465) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $384.65 | $314.26 | -$70.39 | 53% 61999-54294 (116293) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $133.76 | $267.35 | +$133.6 | 49% 1764-1829 (3593) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $100.01 | $87.5 | -$12.51 | 51% 26809-25398 (52207) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24¢ | $58.8 | $45.33 | -$13.47 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.6¢ | $41.21 | $42.18 | +$0.97 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $19.25 | $37.49 | +$18.23 | 49% 1726-1810 (3536) |
Invested
$1,749.3
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$118.72
Record
50%
1780-1756 (3536)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,575.86
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$512.72
Record
50%
28826-28639 (57465)
RN1CTRInvested
$384.65
Value
$314.26
PnL
-$70.39
Record
53%
61999-54294 (116293)
Invested
$133.76
Value
$267.35
PnL
+$133.6
Record
49%
1764-1829 (3593)
Invested
$100.01
Value
$87.5
PnL
-$12.51
Record
51%
26809-25398 (52207)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.25
Value
$37.49
PnL
+$18.23
Record
49%
1726-1810 (3536)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.