Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$52.26

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 50.5¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,433

Combined PnL+$127.57

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,941

Combined PnL-$75.31

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 44.2¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$119.2	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 55.9¢	$902.36	$839.3	-$63.07	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
KY Kyn008	Yesavg 45¢	$197.54	$199.74	+$2.19	40% 139-209 (348)
BL Bloodygoodrep1CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$76.6	$77.38	+$0.78	0% 0-33 (33)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 44.9¢	$53.66	$60.35	+$6.69	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$64.86	$52.97	-$11.89	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$47.94	$47.47	-$0.47	56% 426-340 (766)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$27.78	$27.02	-$0.76	37% 926-1560 (2486)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$13.89	$13.51	-$0.38	36% 883-1569 (2452)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$4.39	$4.34	-$0.05	28% 298-748 (1046)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,224.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$119.2

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$902.36

Value

$839.3

PnL

-$63.07

Record

54%

2013-1746 (3759)

Kyn008

Yes

Invested

$197.54

Value

$199.74

PnL

+$2.19

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

Bloodygoodrep1CTR<$100

Invested

$76.6

Value

$77.38

PnL

+$0.78

Record

0-33 (33)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.66

Value

$60.35

PnL

+$6.69

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$64.86

Value

$52.97

PnL

-$11.89

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.94

Value

$47.47

PnL

-$0.47

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$27.78

Value

$27.02

PnL

-$0.76

Record

37%

926-1560 (2486)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$13.89

Value

$13.51

PnL

-$0.38

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.34

PnL

-$0.05

Record

28%

298-748 (1046)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.