Will Albirex Niigata vs. Tegevajaro Miyazaki end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$66.48

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 98.9¢

+14% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL+$122.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$19.44

Total Shares179

Combined PnL-$56.21

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 88¢	$963.03	$1.1K	+$111.4	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 53¢	$20.93	$31.26	+$10.33	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$11.18	$9.96	-$1.22	36% 915-1634 (2549)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 76.7¢	$9.5	$9.42	-$0.08	37% 909-1532 (2441)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 71¢	$15.79	$9.31	+$0.61	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$6.21	$6.29	+$0.09	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 70¢	$5	$5.43	+$0.43	36% 902-1601 (2503)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.99	$1.71	-$0.28	21% 55-205 (260)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$56.27	$1.48	-$54.79	45% 2420-2899 (5319)

Flaznorp

Invested

$963.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$111.4

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$20.93

Value

$31.26

PnL

+$10.33

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.18

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$1.22

Record

36%

915-1634 (2549)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$15.79

Value

$9.31

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

Limousin<$100

Invested

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.43

Record

36%

902-1601 (2503)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.28

Record

21%

55-205 (260)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.27

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$54.79

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.