Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-11-14?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 82¢ · $857 held · ended Nov 14

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$856.73

Combined PnL

$13.13

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 82¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$310.45

Total Shares384

Combined PnL+$11.96

Yes3 traders

Total Value$4.29

Total Shares23

Combined PnL+$1.17

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 87¢	$506.41	$541.99	+$35.58	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ No leg	Noavg 87¢	$384.02	$357.6	-$26.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.6¢	$122.39	$184.39	+$62
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 74¢	$71.78	$78.57	+$6.79	34% 351-680 (1031)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 77¢	$68.08	$71.02	+$2.94	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 73¢	$45.76	$46.39	+$0.63	36% 930-1626 (2556)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 91¢	$36.4	$33	-$3.4	74% 210-75 (285)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 78¢	$30.06	$31.39	+$1.33	37% 909-1532 (2441)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 77¢	$23.15	$24.35	+$1.2	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$8.1	+$0.6	44% 348-451 (799)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$5.8	$7.38	+$1.58	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 73¢	$6.12	$6.21	+$0.08	43% 949-1283 (2232)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3.85	$4.05	+$0.2	44% 749-938 (1687)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.6¢	$6.03	$2.61	+$1.76	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.99	$1.22	-$0.77	21% 55-205 (260)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5.02	$0.46	+$0.18	53% 1232-1075 (2307)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$506.41

Value

$541.99

PnL

+$35.58

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

No$384.0287¢-$26.43

Yes$122.3912.6¢+$62

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$71.78

Value

$78.57

PnL

+$6.79

Record

34%

351-680 (1031)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$68.08

Value

$71.02

PnL

+$2.94

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$45.76

Value

$46.39

PnL

+$0.63

Record

36%

930-1626 (2556)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$33

PnL

-$3.4

Record

74%

210-75 (285)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$30.06

Value

$31.39

PnL

+$1.33

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$23.15

Value

$24.35

PnL

+$1.2

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.6

Record

44%

348-451 (799)

suntori<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$1.58

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.21

PnL

+$0.08

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.2

Record

44%

749-938 (1687)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.03

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$1.76

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$0.77

Record

21%

55-205 (260)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.02

Value

$0.46

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

77% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (12 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.