Will Albirex Niigata win on 2026-11-07?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 58¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$63.3
50.9¢ → 58¢
+14% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 50.7¢ | $740.82 | $769.52 | +$28.7 | 50% 28826-28639 (57465) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50.7¢ | $540.82 | $591.52 | +$50.7 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | $178 | -$22 | |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 50.5¢ | $532.44 | $594.29 | +$61.85 | 51% 26809-25398 (52207) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 51.1¢ | $192.15 | $191.68 | -$0.47 | 49% 14954-15836 (30790) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 51¢ | $147.17 | $147.17 | +$0 | 64% 10147-5745 (15892) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 51¢ | $147.17 | $147.17 | +$0 | 64% 10122-5677 (15799) |
 RN1 | Noavg 53¢ | $101.03 | $101.98 | +$0.95 | 53% 61999-54294 (116293) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 50.9¢ | $69.06 | $69.18 | +$0.12 | 50% 26276-25912 (52188) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 50.2¢ | $13.42 | $13.62 | +$0.2 | 50% 1780-1756 (3536) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 49.6¢ | $15.74 | $5.75 | +$0.65 | 58% 47297-34106 (81403) |
Invested
$740.82
Value
$769.52
PnL
+$28.7
Record
50%
28826-28639 (57465)
Both legs:
Invested
$532.44
Value
$594.29
PnL
+$61.85
Record
51%
26809-25398 (52207)
Invested
$192.15
Value
$191.68
PnL
-$0.47
Record
49%
14954-15836 (30790)
Invested
$147.17
Value
$147.17
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10147-5745 (15892)
Invested
$147.17
Value
$147.17
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
10122-5677 (15799)
RN1Invested
$101.03
Value
$101.98
PnL
+$0.95
Record
53%
61999-54294 (116293)
Invested
$69.06
Value
$69.18
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
26276-25912 (52188)
Invested
$13.42
Value
$13.62
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
1780-1756 (3536)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$15.74
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.65
Record
58%
47297-34106 (81403)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.