Will US Cremonese win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$286.23

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 98.8¢

+45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,195

Combined PnL+$51.09

No4 traders

Total Value$112.51

Total Shares969

Combined PnL-$337.32

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 71.5¢	$828.32	$782.59	-$45.74	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 60.3¢	$106.71	$124.17	+$17.46	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 76.3¢	$81.89	$105.67	+$23.79	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 40.3¢	$206.94	$97.35	-$109.6	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 49.4¢	$49.43	$97.24	+$47.93	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$21	$28.95	+$7.95	62% 2044-1240 (3284)
PA Pan9XCTR	Noavg 45¢	$103.9	$8.4	-$76.66	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 31.5¢	$175.32	$6.39	-$146.93	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$10	$4	-$0.3	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
RN1CTR<$100	Noavg 14.5¢	$4.5	$0.37	-$4.13	53% 70182-61748 (131930)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$828.32

Value

$782.59

PnL

-$45.74

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$106.71

Value

$124.17

PnL

+$17.46

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$81.89

Value

$105.67

PnL

+$23.79

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$206.94

Value

$97.35

PnL

-$109.6

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.43

Value

$97.24

PnL

+$47.93

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$21

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$7.95

Record

62%

2044-1240 (3284)

Pan9XCTR

Invested

$103.9

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$76.66

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$175.32

Value

$6.39

PnL

-$146.93

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

RN1CTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$0.37

PnL

-$4.13

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.