Will SS Arezzo win on 2026-11-07?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 96¢ · $164 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$163.92
$0.74
84¢ → 95.5¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $68.69 | $77.39 | +$8.69 | 46% 1791-2100 (3891) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $23.2 | $23.6 | +$0.4 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $22 | $22.04 | +$0.04 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $19.5 | $19.88 | +$0.38 | 53% 2699-2381 (5080) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.9 | $7.95 | +$0.05 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $7.82 | $7.69 | -$0.13 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $14.07 | $5.38 | -$8.69 | 50% 1850-1863 (3713) |
Invested
$68.69
Value
$77.39
PnL
+$8.69
Record
46%
1791-2100 (3891)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$23.6
PnL
+$0.4
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$22
Value
$22.04
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$19.5
Value
$19.88
PnL
+$0.38
Record
53%
2699-2381 (5080)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.9
Value
$7.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$7.82
Value
$7.69
PnL
-$0.13
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$14.07
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$8.69
Record
50%
1850-1863 (3713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.