Pisa SC vs. FC Südtirol: O/U 2.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 64¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 44%
$7.1K
$219.63
47.4¢ → 64¢
+35% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 47¢ | $2.1K | $3.4K | +$1.3K | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
 RN1 | Overavg 48.6¢ | $883.98 | $1.5K | +$599.91 | 53% 62321-54560 (116881) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 47¢ | $959.76 | $1.3K | +$299.35 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
RA rabbitfoot1CTR | Underavg 54¢ | $1.8K | $596.2 | $-1.2K | 54% 1243-1053 (2296) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 52¢ | $1.1K | $307.8 | -$759.23 | 50% 21550-21844 (43394) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $22.09 | $23.03 | +$0.94 | 50% 26409-26025 (52434) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $24.2 | $7.92 | -$16.28 | 47% 9568-10685 (20253) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Overavg 84¢ | $5 | $4.58 | -$0.42 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $0.9 | -$1.6 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
Invested
$2,137.34
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
RN1Invested
$883.98
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$599.91
Record
53%
62321-54560 (116881)
Invested
$959.76
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$299.35
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$1,788.41
Value
$596.2
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
54%
1243-1053 (2296)
Invested
$1,067.03
Value
$307.8
PnL
-$759.23
Record
50%
21550-21844 (43394)
Invested
$22.09
Value
$23.03
PnL
+$0.94
Record
50%
26409-26025 (52434)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$7.92
PnL
-$16.28
Record
47%
9568-10685 (20253)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.58
PnL
-$0.42
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$1.6
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.