Will FC Südtirol win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 85¢ · $489 held · ended Nov 7

Yes16¢No84¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$489.03

Combined PnL

-$9.43

Smart Money Entry

86.8¢ → 84.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$349.47

Total Shares398

Combined PnL-$16.89

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.64

Total Shares124

Combined PnL+$7.46

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86.5¢	$194.14	$191.04	-$3.1	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Noavg 86¢	$109.85	$113.92	+$4.07	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$72.6	$69.22	-$3.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15¢	$37.24	$44.69	+$7.45
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 86¢	$86	$78.5	-$7.5	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 86¢	$49.45	$48.01	-$1.44	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
RN1<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19	$16.4	-$2.6	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$11.82	$15.2	+$3.38	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.5	$7.35	-$1.15	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$2.92	$5.3	+$2.38	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.7¢	$3.44	$5.14	+$1.71	42% 2468-3377 (5845)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.27	$4.24	-$1.03	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$3.93	-$0.07	47% 9568-10685 (20253)

Flaznorp

Invested

$194.14

Value

$191.04

PnL

-$3.1

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$109.85

Value

$113.92

PnL

+$4.07

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

Both legs:

No$72.686¢-$3.38

Yes$37.2415¢+$7.45

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$86

Value

$78.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$49.45

Value

$48.01

PnL

-$1.44

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

RN1<$100

Invested

$19

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$2.6

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.82

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$3.38

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$7.35

PnL

-$1.15

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$2.38

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$1.71

Record

42%

2468-3377 (5845)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$5.27

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$1.03

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

lryyy<$100

Invested

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.