Will Pisa SC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 54¢ · $974 held · ended Nov 7

Yes54¢No46¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$973.86

Combined PnL

-$140.81

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 53.5¢

-19% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$738.96

Total Shares1,298

Combined PnL-$146.7

No2 traders

Total Value$20.03

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$5.89

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 65¢	$819.55	$680.29	-$139.26	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$219.81	$214.87	-$4.95	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.5¢	$157.53	$132.67	-$24.86
└ No leg	Noavg 35.2¢	$62.28	$82.2	+$19.91
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$31.38	$21.51	-$9.87	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$20.49	$20.25	-$0.24	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$12.13	$17.51	+$5.37	51% 6512-6277 (12789)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Yesavg 68.6¢	$14.24	$16.91	+$2.67	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 40.2¢	$2.01	$2.53	+$0.52	66% 27662-13968 (41630)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$819.55

Value

$680.29

PnL

-$139.26

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$219.81

Value

$214.87

PnL

-$4.95

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

Yes$157.5363.5¢-$24.86

No$62.2835.2¢+$19.91

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.38

Value

$21.51

PnL

-$9.87

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.49

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$12.13

Value

$17.51

PnL

+$5.37

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.24

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$2.67

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$2.01

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.52

Record

66%

27662-13968 (41630)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.