Will US Avellino 1912 win on 2026-09-06?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$5.1K
$609.61
54.8¢ → 85.5¢
+56% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 84.4¢ | $2.7K | $2.5K | +$335.08 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
 RN1 | Noavg 19.6¢ | $470.61 | $1.9K | +$1.5K | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 39.8¢ | $207.04 | $366.81 | +$209.78 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 81.8¢ | $1.7K | $306.82 | $-1.4K | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 39.5¢ | $21.25 | $31.4 | +$12.55 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
PT PT-S7<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $0.4 | $8.55 | +$8.15 | 49% 3284-3450 (6734) |
Invested
$2,681.58
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$335.08
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
RN1Invested
$470.61
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$207.04
Value
$366.81
PnL
+$209.78
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$1,730.53
Value
$306.82
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$21.25
Value
$31.4
PnL
+$12.55
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$8.55
PnL
+$8.15
Record
49%
3284-3450 (6734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.