Cesena FC vs. Mantova 1911: O/U 3.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 74¢ · $355 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$354.79
-$31
92.1¢ → 73.5¢
-20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 91.9¢ | $292.37 | $233.73 | -$58.64 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 72.7¢ | $46.21 | $69.6 | +$63.21 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 9¢ | $13.7 | $40.33 | +$62.87 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 72.7¢ | $28.93 | $29.27 | +$0.34 | |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Overavg 7.2¢ | $8.9 | $32.59 | +$23.69 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $22.98 | $15.99 | +$4.5 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100 | Overavg 5.2¢ | $0.57 | $2.89 | -$0.55 | 62% 1928-1173 (3101) |
Invested
$292.37
Value
$233.73
PnL
-$58.64
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$46.21
Value
$69.6
PnL
+$63.21
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.9
Value
$32.59
PnL
+$23.69
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$22.98
Value
$15.99
PnL
+$4.5
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$2.89
PnL
-$0.55
Record
62%
1928-1173 (3101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.