Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Cesena FC win on 2026-11-07?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 50¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 7

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

-$617.63

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares18,926

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No10 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares15,691

Combined PnL+$807.31

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$9.5K	$8.0K	$-1.4K	47% 206-230 (436)
RN1	Noavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$325	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$321.9	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 52.2¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$164.86	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 50.7¢	$721.02	$718.63	-$2.4	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 51¢	$538.27	$532.58	-$5.69	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 51.4¢	$28.25	$27.78	-$0.48	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 51¢	$15.3	$17.25	+$1.95	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10	$11.27	+$1.27	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.75	+$0.45	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 51¢	$3.48	$3.92	+$0.44	51% 6512-6277 (12789)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Yes

Invested

$9,468.32

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

RN1

Invested

$2,550

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$325

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,525.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$321.9

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,640.54

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$164.86

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$721.02

Value

$718.63

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Flaznorp

Invested

$538.27

Value

$532.58

PnL

-$5.69

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$28.25

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$0.48

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$15.3

Value

$17.25

PnL

+$1.95

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.44

Record

51%

6512-6277 (12789)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.