US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Calcio Padova: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 63¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$131.93

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 63¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$880.33

Total Shares1,336

Combined PnL-$18.68

Over4 traders

Total Value$321.08

Total Shares848

Combined PnL+$150.61

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 92¢	$510.38	$349.5	-$160.88	72% 2416-933 (3349)
us391	Underavg 47¢	$180.91	$242.73	+$61.82	51% 1684-1648 (3332)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 10.6¢	$67.19	$220.25	+$153.06	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 43¢	$72.86	$106.87	+$34.01	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 56¢	$65.87	$88.49	+$22.62	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$60.9	$81.9	+$21	49% 19187-19579 (38766)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$77.16	$56.14	-$21.01	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 17.3¢	$18.19	$38.85	+$20.66	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
BE berlinskies<$100	Underavg 47¢	$8.09	$10.84	+$2.75	58% 5852-4293 (10145)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$7.93	$5.84	-$2.09	53% 4726-4250 (8976)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$510.38

Value

$349.5

PnL

-$160.88

Record

72%

2416-933 (3349)

us391

Under

Invested

$180.91

Value

$242.73

PnL

+$61.82

Record

51%

1684-1648 (3332)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$67.19

Value

$220.25

PnL

+$153.06

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$72.86

Value

$106.87

PnL

+$34.01

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$65.87

Value

$88.49

PnL

+$22.62

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$60.9

Value

$81.9

PnL

+$21

Record

49%

19187-19579 (38766)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$77.16

Value

$56.14

PnL

-$21.01

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.19

Value

$38.85

PnL

+$20.66

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

berlinskies<$100

Under

Invested

$8.09

Value

$10.84

PnL

+$2.75

Record

58%

5852-4293 (10145)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.93

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$2.09

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.