Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Carrarese Calcio vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 1.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 38%
$1.0K
$161.61
67.6¢ → 43.5¢
-36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 67.5¢ | $456.8 | $501.09 | +$44.29 | 50% 32540-32687 (65227) |
LI LightParadox | Underavg 33¢ | $655.48 | $275.3 | +$58.99 | 48% 2039-2213 (4252) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 40.8¢ | $47.4 | $72.62 | +$25.22 | 51% 46870-44196 (91066) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 26.3¢ | $65.65 | $66.36 | +$0.72 | 49% 2102-2190 (4292) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 36.4¢ | $34.03 | $61.77 | +$27.74 | 48% 2032-2230 (4262) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 41.5¢ | $15.13 | $24.04 | +$8.91 | 53% 70164-61737 (131901) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $12.96 | $7.45 | -$2.01 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $4.48 | $2.24 | -$2.24 | 50% 23433-23429 (46862) |
Invested
$456.8
Value
$501.09
PnL
+$44.29
Record
50%
32540-32687 (65227)
Invested
$655.48
Value
$275.3
PnL
+$58.99
Record
48%
2039-2213 (4252)
Invested
$47.4
Value
$72.62
PnL
+$25.22
Record
51%
46870-44196 (91066)
Invested
$65.65
Value
$66.36
PnL
+$0.72
Record
49%
2102-2190 (4292)
Invested
$34.03
Value
$61.77
PnL
+$27.74
Record
48%
2032-2230 (4262)
RN1<$100Invested
$15.13
Value
$24.04
PnL
+$8.91
Record
53%
70164-61737 (131901)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.96
Value
$7.45
PnL
-$2.01
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$2.24
PnL
-$2.24
Record
50%
23433-23429 (46862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.