Will Carrarese Calcio win on 2026-11-08?

3 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 93¢ · $44K held · ended Nov 8

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$44.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 92.5¢

+51% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$31.4K

Total Shares47,876

Combined PnL-$163.04

Yes12 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares34,109

Combined PnL$-1.0K

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 59.7¢	$26.7K	$27.9K	+$1.2K	48% 214-236 (450)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$9.8K	$3.7K	-$245.5	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 81.9¢	$4.7K	$3.3K	$-1.4K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 41¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$205.06	48% 313-335 (648)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$5.2K	$1.9K	-$170.62	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 40.3¢	$3.1K	$1.1K	-$86.99	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$3.1K	$1.1K	-$76.45	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
GC GC-PCTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$1.8K	$718.93	-$34.97	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$1.6K	$615.33	-$57.43	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 40.5¢	$1.6K	$600	-$48	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 40.4¢	$1.5K	$580.18	-$44.87	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$592.25	$222.09	-$14.56	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 64¢	$148.85	$185.97	+$37.12	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$42.9	$25.75	-$17.15	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$22.87	$18.55	-$4.32	48% 70219-75923 (146142)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$26,684.4

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,820.18

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$245.5

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,715.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,402.13

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$205.06

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,175.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$170.62

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,057.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$86.99

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,057.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$76.45

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

GC-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,769.85

Value

$718.93

PnL

-$34.97

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,640.89

Value

$615.33

PnL

-$57.43

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,600

Value

$600

PnL

-$48

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,547.15

Value

$580.18

PnL

-$44.87

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$592.25

Value

$222.09

PnL

-$14.56

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$148.85

Value

$185.97

PnL

+$37.12

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.9

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$17.15

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.87

Value

$18.55

PnL

-$4.32

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 15 top traders (20%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 85% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.