Will Benevento Calcio win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 62¢ · $40K held · ended Nov 7

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.6K

Combined PnL

$973.21

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 61.5¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares36,658

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares19,451

Combined PnL$-1.4K

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 55¢	$20.0K	$22.4K	+$2.4K	47% 206-230 (436)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$7.6K	$6.7K	-$869.26	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.7¢	$5.8K	$4.9K	-$914.77
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$45.51
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$542.55	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Yesavg 47.4¢	$2.8K	$2.3K	-$503.7	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.4¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$408.9
└ No leg	Noavg 72.3¢	$632.77	$537.97	-$94.8
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 46.5¢	$2.7K	$2.2K	-$456.61	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$278.13	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 43.2¢	$916.23	$825.88	-$90.35	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 38.8¢	$408.52	$399.05	-$9.48	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$266.65	$288.61	+$21.97	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.8¢	$112.14	$145.01	+$32.87
└ No leg	Noavg 66.2¢	$154.51	$143.61	-$10.9
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 45¢	$191.3	$159.44	-$26.86	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 55.2¢	$123.54	$137.53	+$13.99	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$186.16	$119.99	-$12.88	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.3¢	$68.06	$72.15	-$6.92
└ No leg	Noavg 69.2¢	$53.79	$47.84	-$5.96
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$63.86	$54.63	-$9.22	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$16.51	$19.07	+$2.56	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.2	$12.3	+$3.1	62% 1928-1173 (3101)
RL RLWG<$100	Noavg 55¢	$8.25	$9.23	+$0.97	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3	$6.8	+$3.8	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$2.82	$2.96	+$0.14	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$3.55	$1.75	-$1.8	53% 63014-55227 (118241)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$19,999.94

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

47%

206-230 (436)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$7,569.85

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$869.26

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$5,795.9545.7¢-$914.77

No$1,773.960¢+$45.51

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,265.15

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$542.55

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LimousinARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,802.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$503.7

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Yes$2,169.5747.4¢-$408.9

No$632.7772.3¢-$94.8

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,672.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$456.61

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,586.14

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$278.13

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$916.23

Value

$825.88

PnL

-$90.35

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$408.52

Value

$399.05

PnL

-$9.48

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$266.65

Value

$288.61

PnL

+$21.97

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Yes$112.1429.8¢+$32.87

No$154.5166.2¢-$10.9

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$191.3

Value

$159.44

PnL

-$26.86

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$123.54

Value

$137.53

PnL

+$13.99

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

Pan9XARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$186.16

Value

$119.99

PnL

-$12.88

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Both legs:

Invested

$63.86

Value

$54.63

PnL

-$9.22

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$16.51

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$3.1

Record

62%

1928-1173 (3101)

RLWG<$100

Invested

$8.25

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$0.97

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$3.8

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$1.8

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 15 top traders (40%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.