W75 Brisbane: Wushuang Zheng vs Zhuoxuan Bai

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Zhuoxuan Bai (90%) · Zhuoxuan Bai at 92¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 17

Wushuang Zheng8¢Zhuoxuan Bai92¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Zhuoxuan Bai

Consensus Traders

Zhuoxuan Bai 90%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$240.31

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 92.1¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralZhuoxuan Bai at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zhuoxuan Bai

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wushuang Zheng8%

Zhuoxuan Bai92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zhuoxuan Bai9 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,920

Combined PnL+$223.82

Wushuang Zheng1 trader

Total Value$46.16

Total Shares405

Combined PnL+$16.49

Zhuoxuan Bai — 90%Wushuang Zheng — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Zhuoxuan Bai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Zhuoxuan Bai 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 87.4¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$91.01	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
FL Flaznorp	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 87.8¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$99.85	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
38 38791873984189	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 88¢	$952.19	$872.64	+$22.03	48% 603-645 (1248)
CI cigarettes	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 94.7¢	$842.14	$809.18	-$32.97	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
OM omnibus-076daa	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 84¢	$260.53	$291.41	+$30.88	34% 147-291 (438)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 85¢	$80.7	$90.38	+$9.68	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Wushuang Zhengavg 8.1¢	$34.27	$46.16	+$16.49	14% 51-322 (373)
PA Pan9X<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 63¢	$4.22	$6.38	+$2.16	47% 329-371 (700)
LR lryyy<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 71¢	$3.55	$4.76	+$1.21	50% 109-109 (218)
dips.<$100	Zhuoxuan Baiavg 92.1¢	$2.77	$2.74	-$0.03	41% 159-232 (391)

RN1

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$3,327.44

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$91.01

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

Flaznorp

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$2,684.7

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$99.85

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

38791873984189

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$952.19

Value

$872.64

PnL

+$22.03

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

cigarettes

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$842.14

Value

$809.18

PnL

-$32.97

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

omnibus-076daa

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$260.53

Value

$291.41

PnL

+$30.88

Record

34%

147-291 (438)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$80.7

Value

$90.38

PnL

+$9.68

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Wushuang Zheng

Invested

$34.27

Value

$46.16

PnL

+$16.49

Record

14%

51-322 (373)

Pan9X<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$4.22

Value

$6.38

PnL

+$2.16

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

lryyy<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$1.21

Record

50%

109-109 (218)

dips.<$100

Zhuoxuan Bai

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.74

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

159-232 (391)

Research grade

NeutralZhuoxuan Bai at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Zhuoxuan Bai

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Zhuoxuan Bai. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedZhuoxuan Bai 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Zhuoxuan Bai 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zhuoxuan Bai wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.4%

92.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.