W35 Heraklion: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Loes Ebeling Koning

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Zantedeschi (50%) · Aurora Zantedeschi at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Aurora Zantedeschi82¢Loes Ebeling Koning18¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Zantedeschi

Consensus Traders

Aurora Zantedeschi 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$231.37

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 82.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Zantedeschi at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Zantedeschi

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Zantedeschi82%

Loes Ebeling Koning18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Zantedeschi4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,458

Combined PnL-$324.43

Loes Ebeling Koning4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,424

Combined PnL+$93.06

Aurora Zantedeschi — 50%Loes Ebeling Koning — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 94.9¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$303.1	56% 4471-3447 (7918)
NO NotJumpCTR	Loes Ebeling Koningavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$2.85	54% 421-356 (777)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Loes Ebeling Koningavg 26.7¢	$481.53	$553.35	+$71.82	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
└ Loes Ebeling Koning leg	Loes Ebeling Koningavg 26.7¢	$272.75	$347.14	+$74.39
└ Aurora Zantedeschi leg	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 66.8¢	$208.78	$206.21	-$2.57
38 38791873984189	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 94.9¢	$246.36	$168.52	-$20.83	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Loes Ebeling Koningavg 8.2¢	$28.8	$129.17	+$100.37	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
CI cigarettes<$100	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 94¢	$47	$45.19	-$1.81	53% 6074-5439 (11513)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 79.4¢	$33.88	$35.19	+$1.31	30% 166-394 (560)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Loes Ebeling Koningavg 25¢	$4.86	$1.87	-$2.99	47% 325-363 (688)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Loes Ebeling Koningavg 39¢	$1.95	$0.48	-$1.47	50% 133-132 (265)

RN1

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$1,462.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$303.1

Record

56%

4471-3447 (7918)

NotJumpCTR

Loes Ebeling Koning

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.85

Record

54%

421-356 (777)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Loes Ebeling Koning

Invested

$481.53

Value

$553.35

PnL

+$71.82

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

Both legs:

Loes Ebeling Koning$272.7526.7¢+$74.39

Aurora Zantedeschi$208.7866.8¢-$2.57

38791873984189

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$246.36

Value

$168.52

PnL

-$20.83

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Loes Ebeling Koning

Invested

$28.8

Value

$129.17

PnL

+$100.37

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

cigarettes<$100

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$47

Value

$45.19

PnL

-$1.81

Record

53%

6074-5439 (11513)

thestingsnake<$100

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$33.88

Value

$35.19

PnL

+$1.31

Record

30%

166-394 (560)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Loes Ebeling Koning

Invested

$4.86

Value

$1.87

PnL

-$2.99

Record

47%

325-363 (688)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Loes Ebeling Koning

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$1.47

Record

50%

133-132 (265)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Zantedeschi at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Zantedeschi

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Zantedeschi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.1%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.