W35 Heraklion: Aurora Zantedeschi vs Astrid Lew Yan Foon

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Zantedeschi (71%) · Aurora Zantedeschi at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 18

Aurora Zantedeschi90¢Astrid Lew Yan Foon10¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Zantedeschi

Consensus Traders

Aurora Zantedeschi 71%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$20.82

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 90¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Zantedeschi at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Zantedeschi

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Aurora Zantedeschi90%

Astrid Lew Yan Foon10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Zantedeschi5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,447

Combined PnL+$59.15

Astrid Lew Yan Foon2 traders

Total Value$175.28

Total Shares2,045

Combined PnL-$79.97

Aurora Zantedeschi — 71%Astrid Lew Yan Foon — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alpheclabs2	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 90.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$48.06	46% 109-130 (239)
CI cigarettes	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 91.5¢	$926.5	$931.5	+$5	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
FL Flaznorp	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 86.7¢	$869.1	$866.86	-$2.24	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
38 38791873984189	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 88.7¢	$207.51	$215.81	+$8.3	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Astrid Lew Yan Foonavg 12.4¢	$253.75	$173.4	-$80.35	53% 1788-1590 (3378)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Aurora Zantedeschiavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.63	+$0.03	23% 112-368 (480)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Astrid Lew Yan Foonavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.88	+$0.38	49% 93-96 (189)

alpheclabs2

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$2,028.85

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$48.06

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

cigarettes

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$926.5

Value

$931.5

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

Flaznorp

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$869.1

Value

$866.86

PnL

-$2.24

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

38791873984189

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$207.51

Value

$215.81

PnL

+$8.3

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Astrid Lew Yan Foon

Invested

$253.75

Value

$173.4

PnL

-$80.35

Record

53%

1788-1590 (3378)

thestingsnake<$100

Aurora Zantedeschi

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$0.03

Record

23%

112-368 (480)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Astrid Lew Yan Foon

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

49%

93-96 (189)

Research grade

NeutralAurora Zantedeschi at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Zantedeschi

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Zantedeschi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.