W75 Brisbane: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Emerson Jones
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Emerson Jones (60%) · Emerson Jones at 86¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Emerson Jones
5
Emerson Jones 60%
$347.12
$18.16
85.4¢ → 86¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralEmerson Jones at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Emerson Jones. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Emerson Jonesavg 85¢ | $216.75 | $234.6 | +$17.85 | 53% 1703-1483 (3186) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Emerson Jonesavg 87¢ | $52.2 | $55.2 | +$3 | 21% 100-366 (466) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Chengyiyi Yuanavg 15¢ | $38.25 | $33.15 | -$5.1 | 57% 3877-2879 (6756) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Chengyiyi Yuanavg 13.3¢ | $12.36 | $14.05 | +$1.69 | 48% 1056-1134 (2190) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Emerson Jonesavg 85.5¢ | $9.4 | $10.12 | +$0.72 | 50% 1640-1620 (3260) |
Invested
$216.75
Value
$234.6
PnL
+$17.85
Record
53%
1703-1483 (3186)
Invested
$52.2
Value
$55.2
PnL
+$3
Record
21%
100-366 (466)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$38.25
Value
$33.15
PnL
-$5.1
Record
57%
3877-2879 (6756)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$14.05
PnL
+$1.69
Record
48%
1056-1134 (2190)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$0.72
Record
50%
1640-1620 (3260)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.