W75 Brisbane: Xinxin Yao vs Renee Alame

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Xinxin Yao (50%) · Xinxin Yao at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18

Xinxin Yao92¢Renee Alame8¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xinxin Yao

Consensus Traders

Xinxin Yao 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$36.09

Smart Money Entry

75.6¢ → 91.5¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralXinxin Yao at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xinxin Yao

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xinxin Yao92%

Renee Alame9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xinxin Yao3 traders

Total Value$955.55

Total Shares1,010

Combined PnL-$78.56

Renee Alame3 traders

Total Value$283.38

Total Shares829

Combined PnL+$42.47

Xinxin Yao — 50%Renee Alame — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Xinxin Yaoavg 66.9¢	$386.81	$520.28	+$133.47	25% 114-348 (462)
38 38791873984189	Xinxin Yaoavg 90¢	$683.44	$415.32	-$212.03	48% 947-1017 (1964)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Renee Alameavg 31.3¢	$165.8	$178.37	+$12.56	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
RN1CTR	Renee Alameavg 24.2¢	$72.77	$102.42	+$29.65	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
dips.<$100	Xinxin Yaoavg 57¢	$19.95	$19.95	+$0	42% 230-315 (545)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Renee Alameavg 18¢	$2.34	$2.6	+$0.26	45% 86-104 (190)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Xinxin Yao

Invested

$386.81

Value

$520.28

PnL

+$133.47

Record

25%

114-348 (462)

38791873984189

Xinxin Yao

Invested

$683.44

Value

$415.32

PnL

-$212.03

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

FlaznorpCTR

Renee Alame

Invested

$165.8

Value

$178.37

PnL

+$12.56

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

RN1CTR

Renee Alame

Invested

$72.77

Value

$102.42

PnL

+$29.65

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

dips.<$100

Xinxin Yao

Invested

$19.95

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Renee Alame

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.26

Record

45%

86-104 (190)

Research grade

NeutralXinxin Yao at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Xinxin Yao

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xinxin Yao wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.