Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sahaja Yamalapalli, while the market favors Olivia Gadecki (62%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
W75 Brisbane: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Olivia Gadecki
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Sahaja Yamalapalli (100%) · Sahaja Yamalapalli at 39¢ · $629 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Sahaja Yamalapalli
5
Sahaja Yamalapalli 100%
$628.74
-$0.15
39.7¢ → 38.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSahaja Yamalapalli at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Olivia Gadecki 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 40.7¢ | $214.9 | $221.97 | +$7.07 | 50% 1423-1425 (2848) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 39¢ | $193.83 | $188.86 | -$4.97 | 53% 5440-4884 (10324) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 39¢ | $168.53 | $164.21 | -$4.32 | 26% 228-657 (885) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 40.7¢ | $36.92 | $38.11 | +$1.2 | 31% 176-393 (569) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Sahaja Yamalapalliavg 39.6¢ | $14.71 | $15.58 | +$0.87 | 49% 435-456 (891) |
Invested
$214.9
Value
$221.97
PnL
+$7.07
Record
50%
1423-1425 (2848)
Invested
$193.83
Value
$188.86
PnL
-$4.97
Record
53%
5440-4884 (10324)
Invested
$168.53
Value
$164.21
PnL
-$4.32
Record
26%
228-657 (885)
Invested
$36.92
Value
$38.11
PnL
+$1.2
Record
31%
176-393 (569)
Invested
$14.71
Value
$15.58
PnL
+$0.87
Record
49%
435-456 (891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.