M25 Heraklion: Ioannis Xilas vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Gilles Arnaud Bailly (88%) · Gilles Arnaud Bailly at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
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Neutral
Gilles Arnaud Bailly
8
Gilles Arnaud Bailly 88%
$1.6K
$60.97
45.3¢ → 50.5¢
+11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralGilles Arnaud Bailly at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 46.2¢ | $588.17 | $572.85 | -$15.32 | 53% 62226-54444 (116670) |
CI cigarettes | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 44¢ | $220 | $267.5 | +$47.5 | 53% 24138-21186 (45324) |
FL Flaznorp | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 45.8¢ | $195.86 | $224.74 | +$28.88 | 51% 26991-25572 (52563) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Ioannis Xilasavg 52.1¢ | $179.08 | $159.79 | -$19.3 | 50% 21519-21799 (43318) |
 alpheclabs2 | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 44¢ | $152.8 | $156.28 | +$3.47 | 47% 1344-1523 (2867) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 46.9¢ | $76.23 | $86.94 | +$10.71 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 43¢ | $75.68 | $79.2 | +$3.52 | 47% 9510-10646 (20156) |
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100 | Gilles Arnaud Baillyavg 44¢ | $26.4 | $27.9 | +$1.5 | 64% 5374-2988 (8362) |
RN1Invested
$588.17
Value
$572.85
PnL
-$15.32
Record
53%
62226-54444 (116670)
Invested
$220
Value
$267.5
PnL
+$47.5
Record
53%
24138-21186 (45324)
Invested
$195.86
Value
$224.74
PnL
+$28.88
Record
51%
26991-25572 (52563)
Invested
$179.08
Value
$159.79
PnL
-$19.3
Record
50%
21519-21799 (43318)
alpheclabs2Invested
$152.8
Value
$156.28
PnL
+$3.47
Record
47%
1344-1523 (2867)
Invested
$76.23
Value
$86.94
PnL
+$10.71
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
Invested
$75.68
Value
$79.2
PnL
+$3.52
Record
47%
9510-10646 (20156)
Invested
$26.4
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$1.5
Record
64%
5374-2988 (8362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $572.85
cigarettes
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $267.5
Flaznorp
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $224.74
omnibus-076daa
CTRIoannis Xilas — $159.79
alpheclabs2
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $156.28
38791873984189
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $86.94
lryyy
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $79.2
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0
Gilles Arnaud Bailly — $27.9